Oscar Predictions 2014!

2014 Oscars

by Ken B.

Let’s just jump right into this. Here are my official predictions, along with justification for the major prizes (picture, director, acting). No short film predictions, and if I have a certain lack of confidence, I provide the name of the film that might take the award instead. 

BEST PICTURE

Prediction:             12 Years a Slave

Confidence:           Low

Could Lose to:        Gravity

I had Gravity here when I started drafting this piece, and considered switching on multiple occasions, before finally changing it over. I think the latter has a shot at winning this due to its clear Best Director win, but 12 Years a Slave seems to carry a more important impact.

BEST DIRECTOR

Prediction:             Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

Confidence:           High

Here’s a lock for you. Simply put, Cuarón needed to do the most to create this film, using excellent visual technology recreating the vastness of space while still maintaining a heightened sense of mental existence and claustrophobia.

BEST ACTOR

Prediction:             Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Confidence:           High

McConaughey’s got all of the cards lined up: Just about every major award he was nominated for, weight loss, biography, disease, vulnerability, character change, you name it.

BEST ACTRESS

Prediction:             Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Confidence:           High

There was a bit of hamhanded talk earlier on whether or not the reopening of the molestation allegations against Woody Allen would hurt Blanchett’s Oscar chances, and the answer is a clear and obvious no. It’s her Oscar, just accept it. Don’t drag an unrelated family (and potentially judicial) matter into this.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Prediction:             Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Confidence:           High

Despite the fact that Leto’s character in the film is part of the still somewhat taboo final letter in LGBT, I feel like the Academy’s voters have socially progressed enough to award him the Oscar for playing a transgender person.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Prediction:             Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Confidence:           Medium

As Jennifer Lawrence picks up speed, collecting two major awards (Golden Globe and BAFTA), her chances of a second consecutive win increase, but Lupita Nyong’o still holds the lead.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Prediction:             Her

Confidence:           Low

Could Lose to:        American Hustle

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Prediction:             12 Years a Slave

Confidence:           High

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Prediction:             Frozen

Confidence:           High

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Prediction:             The Great Beauty

Confidence:           High

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Prediction:             20 Feet from Stardom

Confidence:           Low

Could Lose to:        The Act of Killing

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Prediction:             The Great Gatsby

Confidence:           High

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Prediction:             Gravity

Confidence:           High

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Prediction:             The Great Gatsby

Confidence:           High

BEST EDITING

Prediction:             Captain Phillips

Confidence:           Low

Could Lose to:        Gravity

(While Picture, Director, and Editing typically go to the same film, I have a three-way split predicted. We’ll see how that turns out).

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

Prediction:             Dallas Buyers Club

Confidence:           Medium

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Prediction:             Gravity

Confidence:           High

BEST SONG

Prediction:             “Let it Go” from Frozen

Confidence:           High

(For what it’s worth, after listening to the whole set my favorite song out of the bunch is “The Moon Song”, but “Let it Go” is still pretty solid.)

BEST SOUND EDITING

Prediction:             Gravity

Confidence:           High

BEST SOUND MIXING

Prediction:             Gravity

Confidence:           High

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Prediction:             Gravity

Confidence:           High

With Gravity, it’s not a particularly surprising year, with many of the awards seemingly already decided. I have it winning six, and a possible seventh in Editing.

Multiple Wins:

  • Gravity – 6 (including Best Director)
  • 12 Years a Slave – 3 (including Best Picture)
  • Dallas Buyers Club – 3
  • Frozen – 2
  • The Great Gatsby – 2
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